Female candidates in the 2015 parliamentary elections. In 57% of electoral districts there are no women candidates running for the Senate.

The percentage of women candidates for the upcoming Parliamentary elections remains at the same level as in 2011. There are 7% more women on the electoral lists than required by the Election Code (42%). Among the committees that exceed the electoral threshold in polls, Law and Justice (PiS) presented the lowest number of female candidates– constituting, as in the previous elections, 40% of the party’s candidates. This year we can observe a significant increase (from 25% in 2011 to 31% in 2015) of the number of women placed in positions on the election lists where they are likely to be elected.  Yet, the number of female candidates running for the Senate continues to be dramatically low – just like four years ago, they account for only 14% of all candidates, and in 57 of electoral districts there are no women on the lists.
 
 
Number of female candidates to the Parliament has stayed the same
 
The analysis of the Institute of Public Affairs (ISP) shows that the proportion of women taking part in the upcoming elections to the Parliament (Sejm) is the same as four years ago – 42% of all candidates. According to the National Electoral Commission (Panstwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW), there are 3295 women registered for this year’s elections. The party that is betting on women is the newly registered RAZEM – women constitute almost half of the candidates on their list (49%).  Among the committees, which exceed the threshold in the polls, most female candidates were put up by the United Left (Zjednoczona Lewica) – 44%, as compared to only 40% by Law and Justice, that proposed the lowest number of women for the upcoming elections. Civic Platform (PO) and Ryszard Petru’s Modern (Nowoczesna) put up 43% of female candidates, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) - 42%.

 
Civic Platform and United Left are betting on women
 
Taking into account the five committees, which exceed the threshold in the electoral polls, women take up only 29% of first positions on the lists.  Ryszard Petru’s party, Modern, put up the highest percentage of women for the first positions (41%), as compared to only 15% presented by the Polish People’s Party. The remaining three committees allocated a similar percentage of the first places for women: 30% by Civic Platform, 29% by both Law and Justice and the United Left. Considering these five committees, almost 31% of all top three positions are possessed by women. The only party that did not relegate women to inferior positions is the Civic Platform that secured 41% of top three places to their female candidates.  The electoral gender quota, when considering only top three places on the list, was also exceeded by Ryszard Petru’s Modern, that secured 36% of top positions to women. Polish People’s Party put up the least female candidates on the first three places – only one fifth of their top candidates were women.


 
Women’s chances in this year’s parliamentary elections can be estimated on basis of the 2011 elections. Depending on the number of seats gained by a given party in particular district, one can roughly determine the number of places from the election lists that are likely to be elected in 2015.  These are the top places on the electoral lists that secure a high probability of obtaining a parliamentary mandate for the candidates.
 
Taking into account the four largest parties, in this year’s parliamentary elections, almost a third of places likely to secure a mandate are taken up by women. Data analyzed by the team at the Gender Equality Observatory of the Institute of Public Affairs shows that, similarly to 2011, Civic Platform stands out of the biggest Polish parties in supporting female candidates in the elections – as many as 38% of places on the list are occupied by women.  Second in line is the United Left that secured 29% of mandated positions to female entrants. Fewer women were allocated by Law and Justice (24%) and Polish People’s Party (14%) that trusted women the least.
 
In 57% of electoral districts there are no women candidates running for the Senate
 
Similarly to 2011, far fewer women run to the Senate. In comparison to 42% of female candidates for the Parliament, the 14% of women running to Senate is a dramatically low level. This tendency could be explained by the introduced system of single-seat constituencies in elections to the upper house. The result of applying this extreme majority system is an overwhelming dominance of men in the current term of office of the Senate.  In 2013, only 13 women were elected Senators. In 2015, Law and Justice registered the highest number of women candidates to the Senate– 13 out of 98 candidates. In the next place, in terms of the nominal number of female candidates to the Senate, stands the Polish People’s Party that registered 10 women in 57 districts. While out of 83 candidates from Civic Platform party only 8 are women, United Left registered only 4 women in 29 districts, and Ryszard Petru’s party only 4 female candidates in 16 districts. Voters from 57% of  districts will not have an opportunity to vote for a women – in 57 out of 100 districts no women are running for seats. On the other hand, the percentage of districts where the voters will not be able to cast their vote for a man is only 1% - only in Rzeszow district there are no men running for the Senate.


 
* Data was based on the electoral lists published by the National Electoral Commission. No information was provided regarding two electoral lists of Polish People’s Party (PSL) and one electoral list of the Civic Platform.


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The analysis was published within the project "Monitoring of 2015 parliamentary elections" financed by Heinrich Boell Stiftung Warschau.